Super El Nino is yet another reminder of how global warming continues to disrupt our lives

Celeste Saulo, World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General, warns not to be fooled by the name El Nino.

“El Niño in Spanish means boy child, but this has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world,” she said of the potentially catastrophic weather pattern WMO is currently monitoring. “We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods, and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies. This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response. 

“Never before in the 50-year history of the World Meteorological Organization have we launched such a major mobilization with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services who are on the frontline of delivering the forecasts and services to save lives and livelihoods.”

This year’s Super El Niño is expected to be one of the strongest on record, predicts the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). A Super El Niño occurs when the Pacific Ocean warms by 4.9 degrees (Fahrenheit) above normal, significantly affecting wind patterns and jet streams. And it is expected to strengthen during the coming months and continue well into 2027. It will bring even warmer temperatures and more moisture throughout much of the U.S., while Wisconsin and much of the northern U.S. will experience less moisture. 

It is just another example of how global warming continues to create more – and more severe – catastrophic weather events

Wisconsin already knows

Residents of north-central Wisconsin have already experienced more than their share of extreme weather this year, including droughts, wildfires, hazardous air quality, floods, heatwaves, and tornadoes. And who knows what winter will bring.

According to the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts, the state's weather is expected to trend warmer and wetter, especially during the winter months, and will endure more extreme storms and intermittent periods of drought. 

WICCI’s models show that Wisconsin’s weather will eventually resemble that of the southern states.  By 2080, summers in Appleton will be more than 12 degrees warmer and nearly 11 percent drier than today. Winters are expected to be more than 13 degrees warmer and almost 18 percent wetter.  If you want to get a sense of climate conditions in Appleton in 2080, Medford, Oklahoma today can provide it. A half-century from now you’d have to move to central Canada to experience today’s Wisconsin climate.

Wisconsinites can expect climate change to impact every aspect of life, including food production, wildlife ecosystems, vegetation, personal health, recreational activities, migration of animals and people, jobs, and more. 

2030 climate goal already considered dead

Carbon dioxide, the most predominant greenhouse gas, traps heat in the atmosphere, resulting in ever-increasing global temperatures. As early as the mid-1800s, scientists discovered that burning fossil fuels contributes to rising carbon dioxide levels.  

In 1992, the United Nations established the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, recognizing climate change as a major global issue. Finally, in 2015, nearly 200 countries, including the United States, adopted the Paris Agreement, which committed to limit global warming to 2.7 degrees by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050. (Trump withdrew the U.S. from the agreement earlier this year) The 2030 goal has now been deemed unachievable. 

To reach net zero by 2050, scientists have calculated that global greenhouse gas emissions must be cut by more than 40 percent.

According to reports from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), temperatures are expected to peak at more than 3 degrees above pre-industrial levels.

It warns that global warming of 4.5 to 5.2 degrees would trigger irreversible glacier melt, a catastrophic rise in sea levels, devastation of the Amazon Rainforest, and a dramatic change in the Atlantic Ocean jet streams, among other impacts.

China, the United States, India, the European Union, the Russian Federation, and Indonesia emit the most greenhouse gas. 

Mitigation efforts are important but not the solution

Scientists and climatologists have offered natural solutions, such as planting trees, but those carry their own limitations, they warn. More forest fires, for instance, could undo tree-planting campaigns. Removing fossil carbon from the atmosphere could help reduce temperatures by a few tenths of a degree, but that technology is still far from perfected. 

Experts agree that the only sure way to stop climate change is to stop burning fossil fuels and to invest in new energy systems. In addition to climate mitigation, potential solutions include restoring and protecting forests and wetlands; upgrading stormwater systems and coastal seawalls; investing in drought-resistant crops and water-saving irrigation systems; improving disaster alert systems and public awareness; upgrading roads, bridges, and power grids to withstand extreme heat, heavy flooding, and high winds; planting shade trees and installing green roofs to lower temperatures. 

The City of Appleton has taken serious steps by creating a climate change task force. Project & Resiliency Manager Steven Schrage is developing a sustainability plan with the goal of 50 percent emissions reduction by 2034 and net zero by 2050. Schrage said Appleton is on the forefront of sustainability initiatives for cities its size and that the key is making everyone understand why it matters – economically, environmentally and socially.

“What we're doing here is try and meet in the middle and show everybody, whether you're for or against or in the middle, that this is a good technology or a good approach that we're taking – to energy management or facilities management, for example,” he said. “If you're on the economic side, we can show you the bottom line, the dollars and cents. Or on the environmental side, we can show you the reduction of emissions. And on the social side, we can do the education part of it and show what a benefit this is to the society in our community.”