The Budget Bill is Causing the Collapse of the GOP Coalition

This piece originally appeared in The Fox Cities Progressive

The coalition that defines the modern, Republican Party and that brought Pres. Trump to power is collapsing because of internal contradictions that cannot be resolved. This collapse presents an opportunity for the Democrats, who must recognize it and seize it. Trump came to power by harnessing populist rhetoric to a business-friendly political program. He claimed to be the voice of working Americans who had been oppressed by “elites,” but his real political program has always been to lower taxes and reduce regulation in the service of those very elites. He used racism and xenophobia to appeal to a segment of the American people, but he never intended to deport the entire agricultural work force on which many of his party's financial supporters depend. Thus, he created the coalition of billionaires and workers that elected him.

The contradictions inherent in this coalition could be ignored or concealed during the campaign for the presidency. As a candidate, Trump could say anything and his supporters heard what they wanted to hear. However, his big beautiful budget bill has brought the contradictions into the open. He cannot pass the tax cuts that his billionaire supporters want without either cutting services that his working-class voters depend on or greatly increasing the deficit. The deficit hawks in Congress are forcing the Republican Party to make a choice, and individual Republican senators are choosing sides.

On the one hand, we have Sen. Josh Hawley, a populist conservative supporter of Pres. Trump saying, that cutting Medicaid is “morally incorrect and politically suicidal.” On the other hand, we have the business conservative Sen. Ron Johnson who thinks that the proposed cuts are insufficient. He wants to cut even more. These two views cannot be reconciled, and many voters are worried that important benefits would be cut if the bill passed.

Other Policies Are Causing Pain To Voters

In the meantime, Trump’s signature tariff policy is is causing pain in rural communities. Farmers are furious because they have lost their export markets because of other countries’ retaliation against the tariffs. Rural areas are deeply divided over Trump's policies. Urban communities are also suffering. Several major American companies including General Motors, Ford, General Electric, John Deere and Coca Cola have announced that they will move production away from the United States. Tens of thousands of jobs are at risk along with the survival of communities that voted for Trump in 2024.

Trump's deportations of immigrant workers are also causing heartache among his supporters. As one business owner in Florida said after his workers were arrested in a raid, "Lost a lot of good men today. I like Trump, but this isn't what I voted for." His feelings were echoed by the people of Kennett, Missouri when they learned that a well-liked member of their community had been arrested.  One member of the community said,

We don’t feel what’s happened to her is right.... She’s a very upstanding citizen in our community. Her kids are into the sports, she’s in the church, and she’s a very upstanding citizen as far as I’m concerned. I think she deserves to be free with her kids.”

Republicans Are Worried About the Coming Elections

Republicans in Congress are worried about the 2026 elections. How can they assure their reelection? Should they side with Hawley to preserve the Medicaid on which their voters depend, or should they side with Johnson? If they do either of those things, will Trump take revenge in the election? 

Their decisions will affect the Republicans' control of Congress, which rests on very thin margins in both houses. A couple of wins in swing districts would hand control back to the Democrats and doom the president’s legislative program. Those who support the “big, beautiful bill” have only a few months to pass it before the 2026 election season begins, but they do not have the votes to pass it in its present form.

Each senator or congressperson must decide how to respond to this situation. The political climate of each state or congressional district is unique, and each candidate must pay attention to the climate in their district. So, we should expect that the party will split deeply, and the alliance that has defined Trump’s party will collapse. Some will stick with Trump. Some will follow the path of Johnson. And some will follow the path of Hawley.

Principled Legal Conservatives Are Anti-Trump

An article appearing in the New York Times describes a friend of the court brief filed by a national group of conservative legal scholars opposing Trump's tariffs on constitutional grounds.  These scholars believe that Trump's actions do violence to the Constitution, and their brief says:

The powers to tax, to regulate commerce and to shape the nation’s economic course must remain with Congress. They cannot drift silently into the hands of the president through inertia, inattention or creative readings of statutes never meant to grant such authority. That conviction is not partisan. It is constitutional. And it strikes at the heart of this case.

 A prominent legal scholar is quoted in the article:

You have to understand that the conservative movement is now, as an intellectual movement, consistently anti-Trump on most issues....

How Can Democrats Profit From the Republican Split?

Democrats can profit from the split by focusing on winning back working-class voters. To do so, they must focus voters' attention on kitchen table issues. I don't pretend to know what the winning combination of issues may be, but here are a couple of suggestions. First, affordable childcare. Working families are mainly two-income families, and reducing the cost of childcare would put money directly in their hands. Second, stability of health insurance coverage. Most working people get their health insurance from their jobs, which means that the coverage is lost when the jobs are lost. The federal government should pick up a worker's share of the cost of their health insurance when they loose a job. That would greatly increase the financial security of every working American.

Democrats should pay special attention to rural areas. Polls indicate that rural people still generally support Trump and the Republican Party, but rural communities will suffer deeply from Trump's policies. We should remember that votes are not cast by statistical aggregates. They are cast by individuals, and an aggregate may conceal deep differences among its members. We should go after every vote that we can get.

Democrats should campaign on pocket book issues rather than issues of racial equity or gender equity. Those issues are important, and Democratic office holders should continue to promote equity. However, a political campaign is too short to change the way people feel about the issues surrounding equity. No one is going to decide to vote for a Democrat for the first time in their life solely as a result of listening to campaign speeches. On the other hand, while Democrats may not be able to change voters' minds, they can shift the focus of their attention. They can get them to see other issues as more important. They can get them to see that the oppression of all working people by a system that is rigged against them is wrong, and they can show them that they do not have to accept being oppressed.  As I argued in an earlier post on this blog, progressive policies that benefit all working Americans will also increase equity and opportunity in our society.